China Luxury Demand Rallies, But What Does It Mean For 2013?
G-STAR 2012 Part 3.
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Watchmakers hope for a rebound in mainland Chinese demand next year
In 2013, the question for China remains what kind of growth leading luxury groups like LVMH and Richemont can realistically expect. According to the average estimates in a recent Bloomberg survey, China's economy should expand around 8.1 percent in 2013, up from 7.7 percent this year but down from 9.3 percent in the luxury boom year of 2011. Though more conspicuous brands like Rolex and Louis Vuitton should perform better than expected in 2013, owing to continued third- and fourth-tier expansion, we expect the most significant growth stories in top-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai t0 be among boutique luxury brands, independent high-end designers (via e-commerce and brick-and-mortar), and even a handful of domestic jewelers.
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Following a significant dip in demand for some major luxury brands in China over the past six months, recent figures project a strengthening in the first quarter of 2013, even for beleaguered high-end watchmakers. As Bloomberg notes today,
Concern over slowing Chinese growth was waning, which might help luxury shares, said Joerg Lorenz of Zuercher Kantonalbank. Sales in the second-biggest economy had risen since the summer, and spending abroad was now "more aggressive", Francesco Trapani, the head of LVMH's watch and jewellery unit, said.
Richemont's first-half profit beat analyst estimates, as a weaker euro spurred Asian spending on luxury goods in Europe.
"Markets seem to assume that China growth is bottoming out and there's even more of a rally in store for luxury goods," Lorenz said. "The latest watch export statistics support this view."
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